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Bhutan has launched a major military operation against Indian rebels who for years have sought sanctuary in the Himalayan kingdom. It is possible that in this process the guerrillas will inflict...

Following the collapse of years of parleys between the Bhutanese government in Thimphu and Indian rebel groups, Bhutan has launched its first-ever modern military operation, dispatching a contingent of 6,000 troops to dislodge some 3,000 Indian rebels from their hideouts along the southern border with India.

The Bhutanese Foreign Ministry claims its troops have overrun six insurgent bases and some 120 rebels and that 34 Bhutanese soldiers have been killed. The rebels belong to three secessionist groups: the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and the Kamtapur Liberation Organization (KLO). They have expressed willingness to negotiate a withdrawal from Bhutan, but officials in Thimphu have said they will halt the operation only if the rebels surrender before leaving the country.

Both sides have hinted at the likelihood for a cessation of hostilities, but the fighting is unlikely to end soon. At best, with help from Indian military advisers offering logistical support, Bhutanese troops will displace the rebels from their hideouts, declare victory and end the operation. On the other hand, Bhutan might be unable to get the job done, which prompts the involvement of Indian ground forces standing guard along the 236-mile unfenced border Bhutan shares with the two Indian states of Assam and West Bengal. This outcome would have broader geopolitical ramifications.