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Russia and the West are vying for influence in Libya, but Tripoli is struggling with a potentially destabilizing transfer of power.

U.S. President George W. Bush on Nov. 17 called Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi to voice satisfaction over a U.S.-Libyan deal to compensate victims of terrorism. Additionally, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice plans to meet Gadhafi’s son, Seif al-Islam, later in the week. Meanwhile, the European Union launched talks Nov. 13 to establish closer political and economic relations with Libya, as part of a Western drive to boost relations with energy suppliers.

These Western moves come on the heels of similar initiatives by Russia to align closely with Tripoli. Libya, meanwhile, is trying to position itself between the two sides, with Gadhafi making a trip to Russia at the beginning of the month.

Five years after Libya shed its global pariah status and was welcomed back into the fold of the international community, the country is beginning to enjoy the attention and revenues that come from being an energy exporter. A resurgent Russia makes this a double treat for Tripoli, which used to be a key ally of the Soviet Union in North Africa during the Cold War, because Libya stands to increase its gains by playing Russia and the West off each other.

Years of isolation, however, have done considerable damage to the Libyan state. As Russia and the West vie to win Tripoli’s heart, internal instability threatens to derail the plans of all involved. The state founded by Gadhafi in 1969 is not about to wither away any time soon, but problems have begun to surface and are eroding the country’s image as a stable polity. Increased contact with the outside world will only further complicate the cracks in the system.

Gadhafi is 66 years old and, like other Middle Eastern autocrats who have ruled their countries for decades, will eventually hand over the mantle of leadership to a successor. Seif al-Islam is positioning himself to take over once his father is no more (or simply can rule no more). While the son has been advocating reform and change to ensure the continuity of the republic his father built, it is very difficult to undo 40 years of command-style political economy.